Book Du Jour The Black Swan

Apparently the book de jour right now in business and marketing is called Black Swan.

The Black Swan theory?

"In Nassim Nicholas Taleb's definition, a black swan is a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations. Much of scientific discoveries for him are black swans—"undirected" and unpredicted. An event often referred to as a "black swan" is the September 11, 2001 attacks.[1]"

Hum...that sounds familiar. Isn't that what an emergent system is?

"Emergent structures are patterns not created by a single event or rule. Nothing commands the system to form a pattern. Instead, the interaction of each part with its immediate surroundings causes a complex chain of processes leading to some order. One might conclude that emergent structures are more than the sum of their parts because the emergent order will not arise if the various parts are simply coexisting; the interaction of these parts is central."

Regardless if someone names it black swan or white dove, understanding emergent systems have become more important in our everyday business world.

Here is a quote from the paper "Emergent Phenomena and Complexity" that Peter used to put in our presentations talking about the new business reality with clients:

"Emergent systems are those in which perfect knowledge and understanding may give us no predictive information. The optimal means of prediction is simulation."